Zurich 2035 — a part of the book Zurich as an International Financial Centre by Dr Alexander Ressos.
Part L closes the book with an assessment of Zurich’s competitive position and with scenarios for the coming decade. The preceding parts have traced how the financial centre was built over two millennia and how it works today. The two final chapters ask where it stands among its competitors and which decisions will shape its position by 2035.
Chapter I compares Zurich with London, Singapore, Hong Kong, Dubai and Abu Dhabi, Geneva and other European centres on law, tax, talent, market access and reputation, and it examines what rankings can and cannot show. Chapter II identifies the drivers that will determine the future of the financial centre, among them the capital regime for the one remaining global bank, relations with the European Union, tokenised markets, demography, geopolitics and artificial intelligence. It develops four scenarios for 2035 with their early warning signs and closes by returning to the historical arc of the book.
This part belongs to Zurich as an International Financial Centre by Dr Alexander Ressos, published here in full, section by section.
International competition: London, Singapore, Hong Kong, Dubai and Geneva — overview and summary
Financial centres compete for the same scarce goods: the trust of wealthy families, the mandates of institutional investors, the listings of growing companies, the head offices of banks and insurers,… Read more Zurich · Zurich 2035Measuring financial centres
The most widely quoted measure of financial centres is the Global Financial Centres Index (GFCI), which the London think tank Z/Yen Partners has published twice a year since 2007, now in… Read more Zurich · Zurich 2035London
London remains the only financial centre in Europe that competes with New York across the whole range of wholesale finance. Read more Zurich · Zurich 2035Singapore
Singapore is the competitor that most resembles Zurich in its strengths. Like Switzerland, the city-state offers political stability, a strong currency, low taxes, an efficient administration, a… Read more Zurich · Zurich 2035Hong Kong
Hong Kong’s recovery is the most surprising development in the competitive field. Between 2019 and 2022 the city lived through mass protests, the National Security Law of June 2020, some of the… Read more Zurich · Zurich 2035Dubai and Abu Dhabi
The United Arab Emirates have become the fastest-growing competitor for internationally mobile wealth. Read more Zurich · Zurich 2035Geneva
Geneva is Zurich’s closest competitor and its most natural partner. The companion volume to this book describes Geneva as an international financial centre in its own right, with a history that runs… Read more Zurich · Zurich 2035Other European competitors
Within Europe, Zurich competes with several centres that are smaller than London but enjoy an advantage that Switzerland lacks: full access to the internal market of the European Union. Read more Zurich · Zurich 2035Zurich’s comparative strengths and weaknesses
Zurich’s first strength is legal certainty. Swiss law is codified, published in three official languages and applied by courts whose independence is not seriously questioned. Read more Zurich · Zurich 2035The view of international clients
For clients from Asia, the choice between Zurich, Singapore and Hong Kong is rarely exclusive. Read more Zurich · Zurich 2035Scenarios for 2035 — overview and summary
A book that begins with a Roman customs post on the Limmat and ends in September 2026 owes its readers a view of what comes next. Read more Zurich · Zurich 2035Method: scenarios, drivers and uncertainties
Scenario planning emerged from the strategic thinking of the Cold War. Herman Kahn, first at the RAND Corporation and later at the Hudson Institute, used alternative stories of the future to think… Read more Zurich · Zurich 2035Driver 1: the one-big-bank financial centre
No question will shape the Zurich financial centre of 2035 more than the future of UBS. Read more Zurich · Zurich 2035Driver 2: relations with the European Union
The second driver concerns Switzerland’s relationship with its largest trading partner. Read more Zurich · Zurich 2035Driver 3: crypto-assets and Digital Assets and tokenised markets
Part J has described how Switzerland built one of the most complete legal frameworks for crypto-assets and Digital Assets in the world. Read more Zurich · Zurich 2035Driver 4: demography, pensions and the transfer of wealth
Demographic change is the most predictable of all the drivers. The Federal Statistical Office expects the resident population of Switzerland to reach about 9.5 million in the early 2030s and to… Read more Zurich · Zurich 2035Driver 5: geopolitics, sanctions and neutrality
The fifth driver concerns Switzerland’s position in a world that has become more dangerous and more divided. Read more Zurich · Zurich 2035Driver 6: artificial intelligence and talent
Artificial intelligence will change the production function of the financial centre more deeply than any technology since the computer. Read more Zurich · Zurich 2035Driver 7: taxation
The seventh driver is taxation, a field in which the Swiss federal order gives the cantons wide autonomy and the voters the last word. Chapter H.V described the position of Zurich within this system. Read more Zurich · Zurich 2035Four scenarios for 2035
The seven drivers contain predetermined elements and critical uncertainties. Among the predetermined elements are the ageing of the population and the transfer of wealth, the existence of a modern… Read more Zurich · Zurich 2035Implications
For banks, insurers, asset managers and financial market infrastructures in Zurich, the scenarios suggest several robust choices. Capital strength has become a competitive factor. Read more Zurich · Zurich 2035A closing reflection: the long arc of the Zurich financial centre
A book that has followed the Zurich financial centre over two thousand years may end with a question that no scenario can answer: what, in this long history, has made the difference between the… Read more