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Driver 4: demography, pensions and the transfer of wealth

An ageing and growing population

Demographic change is the most predictable of all the drivers. The Federal Statistical Office expects the resident population of Switzerland to reach about 9.5 million in the early 2030s and to exceed ten million in early 2040. Economic conditions drive immigration and therefore population growth, which currently runs at about half a per cent a year. The proportion of people over sixty-four will rise while the working-age population shrinks relative to it. Growth will concentrate in the large urban areas, above all Zurich and the Lake Geneva region.1 On 14 June 2026 the voters rejected, by 54.8 per cent and in thirteen of twenty-three cantons, the popular initiative “No to a 10-million Switzerland”. It would have capped the permanent resident population at ten million before 2050 and could ultimately have required the termination of the free movement agreement with the EU. Turnout reached 58.9 per cent.2 The result removed an immediate threat to the recruitment of foreign staff, although the margin showed how contested growth has become.

The first and second pillars

The ageing of the population puts pressure on the first pillar. On 3 March 2024 the voters approved the initiative for a thirteenth annual AHV pension by 58.2 per cent and fifteen of twenty-six cantons. On the same day they rejected an increase in the retirement age to sixty-six by 74.7 per cent.3 The thirteenth pension is paid from 2026 and costs more than CHF 4 billion a year. Parliament has decided to finance part of it through an increase in the standard rate of value added tax from 8.1 to 8.5 per cent from 2028, which would raise about CHF 1.4 billion a year from 2029. The voters will decide this increase on 29 November 2026. Even with it, the Federal Social Insurance Office expects an annual deficit of about CHF 3 billion by 2035.4 The trade unions support the financing through value added tax as an alternative to raising the retirement age to sixty-seven.5

The second pillar is the largest domestic pool of capital for the financial centre. Chapter H.II recorded pension assets of more than CHF 1.2 trillion. Its reform has stalled. On 22 September 2024 the voters rejected the reform of occupational pensions by 67.1 per cent, with every canton against it. The reform would have lowered the minimum conversion rate from 6.8 to 6.0 per cent while improving the position of low earners and part-time workers.6 The failure leaves the pension funds to manage longevity and low returns through their own, non-mandatory parameters. For asset managers, insurers and custodians in Zurich, the second pillar will remain a stable and growing client base until 2035. The uncertainty lies in whether the political system finds a sustainable financing model for both pillars or whether recurrent votes create a climate of fiscal pressure that spills over into taxation of the financial sector.

The great transfer of wealth

The third element of this driver is the transfer of wealth between generations. Switzerland leads the world in average wealth per adult, which the UBS Global Wealth Report 2026 put at USD 910,382 for 2025, ahead of the United States and Luxembourg. Global personal wealth grew by 10.8 per cent in dollar terms in 2025, the fastest pace since 2017.7 A study by Marius Brülhart, Andreas Fuster, Isabel Z. Martínez and Falone Moseka published in February 2026 estimated that annual inheritances and gifts in Switzerland had risen from CHF 32 billion in 2000 to about CHF 100 billion in 2025, or from 6.7 to 11.6 per cent of gross domestic product. The median age at which heirs receive an inheritance rose over the same period from fifty-six to sixty.8 A survey by the VermögensZentrum confirmed a figure of about CHF 100 billion for 2025 and found a median estate of about CHF 1.4 million for married couples, while only one per cent of those surveyed had made provision for their digital estate.9

The transfer of wealth is a predetermined element with open consequences. It will bring a new generation of owners into the private banks, family offices and trust companies described in Chapters H.III and H.IV, many of them already in their sixties when they inherit. Their preferences in digital service, sustainable investment and the use of crypto-assets and Digital Assets differ from those of their parents. International families will also bring heirs living in several countries, which will increase the demand for cross-border succession planning. For Zurich the question is whether its institutions retain the assets as they pass from one generation to the next, or whether heirs move them to the jurisdictions where they live.

Notes

  1. SRF News, “BFS-Referenzszenario: Was würde ein Ja zur ‘Keine 10-Millionen-Schweiz’ bedeuten”, 2026, https://www.srf.ch/news/schweiz/bfs-referenzszenario-was-wuerde-ein-ja-zur-keine-10-millionen-schweiz-bedeuten. ↩
  2. SRF News, “Abstimmung vom 14. Juni: Initiative ‘Keine 10-Mio.-Schweiz’ gescheitert”, 14 June 2026, https://www.srf.ch/news/schweiz/abstimmung-vom-14-juni-initiative-keine-10-mio-schweiz-gescheitert. ↩
  3. IamExpat, “Switzerland approves plan to increase pension payments”, 3 March 2024, https://www.iamexpat.ch/expat-info/swiss-news/switzerland-approves-plan-increase-pension-payments. ↩
  4. Federal Social Insurance Office (BSV), “Abstimmung: Zusatzfinanzierung der AHV durch eine Erhöhung der Mehrwertsteuer”, https://www.bsv.admin.ch/de/abstimmung-13-ahv-rente. ↩
  5. Schweizerischer Gewerkschaftsbund, proposal to the delegates’ assembly of 20 August 2026 on the financing of the 13th AHV pension, 13 August 2026, https://www.sgb.ch/fileadmin/redaktion/docs/communiques/260820_Finanzierung_13._AHV.pdf. ↩
  6. SRF News, “Reform der beruflichen Vorsorge wuchtig abgelehnt”, 22 September 2024, https://www.srf.ch/news/schweiz/abstimmungen-22-september-24/reform-berufliche-vorsorge/nationale-abstimmung-reform-der-beruflichen-vorsorge-wuchtig-abgelehnt. ↩
  7. UBS, “Global Wealth Report 2026: Global wealth rose over 10% in 2025”, media release of 30 June 2026, https://www.ubs.com/jp/ja/about/newsdisplay-ndp/en-20260630-gwr-2026.html. ↩
  8. Marius Brülhart, Andreas Fuster, Isabel Z. Martínez and Falone Moseka, Vermögen und Erbschaften in der Schweiz des 21. Jahrhunderts, E4S White Paper, February 2026, https://e4s.center/wp-content/uploads/2026/02/E4S-White-Paper-Wealth-and-Inheritance-DEU-final2.pdf. ↩
  9. finews.ch, “Rekordwerte bei Erbschaften – so regeln Schweizer ihren Nachlass”, 2025, https://www.finews.ch/news/finanzplatz/69430-vz-vermoegenszentrum-nachlass-studie-erben-rekordwerte-finanzplatz-schweiz. ↩

For general information only. This article does not constitute legal or tax advice, does not replace advice on an individual case and creates no lawyer-client relationship. It reflects the legal position as of September 2025.

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