Implications

For financial institutions

For banks, insurers, asset managers and financial market infrastructures in Zurich, the scenarios suggest several robust choices. Capital strength has become a competitive factor. Institutions that meet the new requirements comfortably will benefit from the trust that the Swiss brand confers in every scenario, while those that depend on regulatory relief remain exposed to political decisions. Diversification of client markets is equally important. A wealth manager that serves only European clients from Zurich depends on the success of the EU package, whereas one that also serves clients in the Middle East, Latin America and Asia can adapt to restricted access. The Berne agreement with the United Kingdom offers a model for structured access to one important market. Investment in AI and tokenisation is necessary in every scenario, yet it must be accompanied by governance that satisfies FINMA’s expectations and by a careful management of dependence on external providers, which FINMA’s survey identified as a growing risk.¹

The transfer of wealth requires particular attention. Institutions that build relationships with the heirs before the estates pass, bearing in mind that the median heir in Switzerland is now about sixty years old,² that offer digital services, including for the digital estate that only one per cent of Swiss testators currently address,³ and that understand the cross-border succession law described in Chapter H.IV will retain assets that others lose. The same applies to the family office sector, which is likely to grow in every scenario because the number of large fortunes continues to rise. Finally, compliance with anti-money-laundering and sanctions rules remains a condition of survival. The FATF evaluation of Switzerland in 2027 and 2028, discussed in Chapter I.III, will be an important test for the whole centre.

For advisers

For lawyers, tax advisers, trustees and other professionals, the scenarios point in the same direction. The value of advice lies increasingly in the combination of Swiss and foreign law, of regulatory and tax knowledge, and of legal and technological understanding. Clients will need help with the CRD VI regime, which applies from 11 January 2027,⁴ and with the reverse solicitation rules, with the tax consequences of relocation between Switzerland, Germany and other states described in Part K, with the structuring of tokenised assets and with the succession planning of international families. The new due diligence duties for advisers under the revised Anti-Money Laundering Act, in force since 1 October 2026 and described in Chapter I.III, will make the legal profession part of the compliance infrastructure. Advisers who act as a bridge between legal systems and languages, as Chapter K.IV has argued, will remain in demand in every scenario, because machine translation and AI raise the value of the judgement that combines them.

For policymakers

For the Federal Council, Parliament and the cantons, the scenarios highlight the decisions that matter most. The first is the capital settlement for UBS. The National Council will decide whether to confirm the Council of States’ figure of 90 per cent, to return to the Federal Council’s full backing or to go further. A settlement that the bank can accept without relocation, while protecting the public from a repetition of 2008 and 2023, is the precondition of the European anchor and global niche scenarios. The second decision concerns the European Union. The approval of the package would secure the general framework of the relationship. A structured dialogue on financial services would then give the financial centre a perspective that it has lacked since the failure of the framework agreement.

The third set of decisions concerns the domestic foundations: the financing of the AHV, where the vote of 29 November 2026 on an increase in value added tax is the next step,⁵ the reform of the second pillar, the housing supply in the Zurich region and the admission of skilled workers from third countries. The fourth concerns legal innovation. The stablecoin and crypto institution legislation, the Zurich International Commercial Court and the AI regulation announced for the end of 2026 can strengthen Switzerland’s position in the fields where it controls its own law. The Federal Chancellery’s Perspektiven Schweiz 2040 already lists the technology and knowledge base and Switzerland’s place in the world among its six fields of action.⁶ The legislative programme for 2027–2031 will show whether these fields are translated into measures for the financial centre.

For international clients

For international clients, the scenarios offer a sober message. In every scenario Switzerland will remain a jurisdiction with a strong currency, independent courts, a predictable legal order and a financial sector subject to rigorous supervision. The automatic exchange of information, the reporting of crypto-assets and the anti-money-laundering rules will remain in place, so that Zurich will serve only clients whose assets are declared and whose origin is documented. What differs between the scenarios is the range of services available from Zurich and the ease of access to them. In the European anchor scenario, European clients will find a broader offer. In the global niche scenario, clients from outside Europe will benefit from a centre that concentrates on them. In the fortress and decline scenarios the choice of institutions will narrow, so that clients may need to combine a Zurich relationship with booking centres in other jurisdictions.

For families planning succession over several generations, the stability of Swiss law and the cantonal competence for inheritance taxation, confirmed by the vote of November 2025,⁷ remain important advantages. For entrepreneurs considering a move to Zurich, the high cost of housing and the scarcity of space, with a vacancy rate of about 0.1 per cent in the city, are the practical constraints,⁸ while the tax framework remains attractive within the limits set by the minimum tax and by the rules of the country of departure.

Notes

1. FINMA, “FINMA survey: artificial intelligence gaining traction at Swiss financial institutions”, 24 April 2025 (cited above). ↩
2. Brülhart, Fuster, Martínez and Moseka, Vermögen und Erbschaften in der Schweiz des 21. Jahrhunderts (cited above). ↩
3. finews.ch, “Rekordwerte bei Erbschaften” (cited above). ↩
4. Loyens & Loeff (cited above). ↩
5. Schweizerischer Gewerkschaftsbund, proposal of 13 August 2026 (cited above), which notes that the increase requires a majority of people and cantons. ↩
6. Federal Council, press release on Perspektiven Schweiz 2040, 19 June 2026 (cited above). ↩
7. blue News, “Erbschaftssteuerinitiative der Juso mit 78,3 Prozent Nein abgelehnt” (cited above). ↩
8. Südostschweiz (Keystone-SDA), “Zürich und Winterthur verzeichnen kaum mehr Leerwohnungen” (cited above). ↩

For general information only. This article does not constitute legal or tax advice, does not replace advice on an individual case and creates no lawyer-client relationship. It reflects the legal position as of September 2025.