A note on method

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The scenarios presented here are constructions, and the reader is entitled to know their limits. They rest on seven variables chosen by the author, where other analysts would select a different list. They assume relationships between these variables that experience suggests without proving, and they assign qualitative probabilities, without a model. Their usefulness lies in their ability to structure reflection, to identify robust decisions and to prepare responses before events impose them. Large companies and public administrations have used this method for half a century, whereas financial centres, which have no management, rarely use it for themselves.

A financial centre can nevertheless equip itself with this instrument. The Geneva umbrella organisations, together with the cantonal authorities, the training institutes and the institutions, could conduct a scenario exercise on the financial centre every three years, based on the dashboard proposed above, and publish its conclusions. Without binding anyone, such an exercise would give the centre a self-awareness that its competitors, directed by single authorities, possess by construction. The present chapter is a first version of it, produced by a single author, with the data available in September 2026. It will be superseded, and that is its purpose.

For general information only. This article does not constitute legal or tax advice, does not replace advice on an individual case and creates no lawyer-client relationship. It reflects the legal position as of September 2025.

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Dr Alexander Ressos, TEP

Rechtsanwalt/Attorney-at-Law

I am a Swiss attorney-at-law and also admitted as a solicitor in Hong Kong and in England & Wales, with almost 25 years of experience.

Together with my multilingual team, including Chinese, Japanese, Korean, Russian, Ukrainian and French native speakers, I advise companies and their owners from around the world on the full range of banking, corporate, commercial and tax law matters in Switzerland, including international tax planning, fiduciary services, and legal family office services including immigration & relocation or real estate investments. My practice has a particular focus on clients from growth and frontier markets in Greater China, Central Asia and the Caucasus, the rest of Asia, the Middle East, Africa and Latin America, and I equally advise clients from Europe and North America. Through an affiliated Swiss trust company, we also take care of the incorporation and ongoing administration of their companies and other structures, including accounting, tax returns and corporate secretarial services, and I serve as a professional director where required. With the support of a network of first-class cooperation partners, I also implement solutions worldwide.

My approach is to act as a trusted advisor who works directly with decision-makers, on an equal footing: I start from what you want to achieve and shape every structure, contract and tax decision around your commercial goals and how it improves your after-tax return. As “lawyers who make it happen”, my team and I stay involved until your company is set up, your structure is in place and your transaction has closed, and we remain available for any follow-on work that may be required. You benefit from bespoke solutions and personal attention, and sound, friendly and practical advice. We are not the lowest-cost provider in the market, nor do we intend to be; our aim is to deliver well-founded, proper solutions and excellent value for money.

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