Scenario 1: "Anchored partnership"

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In the first scenario, Parliament approves the package and the Swiss electorate confirms it in a referendum in 2027 or 2028, whatever the majority required. The agreements enter into force in stages from the end of the decade, with the electricity and health agreements following once the domestic legislation is in place. By 2035 the dynamic adoption of Union law has become routine. The joint committees meet regularly, the arbitral tribunal has been convened rarely or not at all, and the high-level dialogue provides a channel for political questions. Swiss researchers participate fully in the successor to Horizon Europe, while Basel students have taken part in Erasmus+ since 2027.

In this scenario, the bilateral relationship acquires a stability that it has lacked since 2008. Its economic effects are gradual. Medical technology companies regain mutual recognition once the Mutual Recognition Agreement is updated, the pharmaceutical groups enjoy legal certainty for the recognition of inspections, and the electricity market becomes integrated. Frontier workers notice little change, since their status was secure before, although the specified safeguard clause and the new wage protection measures reshape the political debate. The financial centre gains no new market access. Its benefit lies in the end of retaliatory measures of the kind seen in 2019 and in a more cooperative climate in which exploratory talks on financial services might eventually begin.¹ The banks of Basel still have to serve Union clients through subsidiaries or within the exemptions of Article 21c CRD.

Notes

On the possibility of future talks on financial services after the entry into force of the package, see the statements of the Federal Council and SIF. Speculative; status to be verified. ↩

For general information only. This article does not constitute legal or tax advice, does not replace advice on an individual case and creates no lawyer-client relationship. It reflects the legal position as of August 2025.

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Dr Alexander Ressos, TEP

Rechtsanwalt/Attorney-at-Law

I am a Swiss attorney-at-law and also admitted as a solicitor in Hong Kong and in England & Wales, with almost 25 years of experience.

Together with my multilingual team, including Chinese, Japanese, Korean, Russian, Ukrainian and French native speakers, I advise companies and their owners from around the world on the full range of banking, corporate, commercial and tax law matters in Switzerland, including international tax planning, fiduciary services, and legal family office services including immigration & relocation or real estate investments. My practice has a particular focus on clients from growth and frontier markets in Greater China, Central Asia and the Caucasus, the rest of Asia, the Middle East, Africa and Latin America, and I equally advise clients from Europe and North America. Through an affiliated Swiss trust company, we also take care of the incorporation and ongoing administration of their companies and other structures, including accounting, tax returns and corporate secretarial services, and I serve as a professional director where required. With the support of a network of first-class cooperation partners, I also implement solutions worldwide.

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Scenario 1: "Anchored partnership"

Notes

Setting up or expanding in Switzerland?