What the scenarios mean for residents

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The scenarios have different consequences for the different groups of residents. For the international community, the adaptive hub and the fortress offer continued opportunities, while the retreat and the squeeze reduce them. For wealthy Swiss residents, the scenarios matter mainly through their effects on taxes and on the value of their property and investments. For local residents with ordinary incomes, the picture is more ambiguous. The adaptive hub brings jobs and public services funded by high tax revenues, but also high housing costs and crowded infrastructure. The retreat brings lower costs and less crowding, but also fewer jobs and lower revenues for public services.

This ambiguity explains why the canton's economic model is politically contested, since different groups of residents benefit from it to different degrees and bear its costs to different degrees. The canton's politics will be shaped by the balance between these groups and by the ability of the authorities to distribute the benefits of growth widely. The canton's decision to use its surpluses to reduce health insurance premiums for all residents is an example of an attempt to share the benefits broadly, although its housing policy will be the main test.

For general information only. This article does not constitute legal or tax advice, does not replace advice on an individual case and creates no lawyer-client relationship. It reflects the legal position as of September 2025.

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Dr Alexander Ressos, TEP

Rechtsanwalt/Attorney-at-Law

I am a Swiss attorney-at-law and also admitted as a solicitor in Hong Kong and in England & Wales, with almost 25 years of experience.

Together with my multilingual team, including Chinese, Japanese, Korean, Russian, Ukrainian and French native speakers, I advise companies and their owners from around the world on the full range of banking, corporate, commercial and tax law matters in Switzerland, including international tax planning, fiduciary services, and legal family office services including immigration & relocation or real estate investments. My practice has a particular focus on clients from growth and frontier markets in Greater China, Central Asia and the Caucasus, the rest of Asia, the Middle East, Africa and Latin America, and I equally advise clients from Europe and North America. Through an affiliated Swiss trust company, we also take care of the incorporation and ongoing administration of their companies and other structures, including accounting, tax returns and corporate secretarial services, and I serve as a professional director where required. With the support of a network of first-class cooperation partners, I also implement solutions worldwide.

My approach is to act as a trusted advisor who works directly with decision-makers, on an equal footing: I start from what you want to achieve and shape every structure, contract and tax decision around your commercial goals and how it improves your after-tax return. As “lawyers who make it happen”, my team and I stay involved until your company is set up, your structure is in place and your transaction has closed, and we remain available for any follow-on work that may be required. You benefit from bespoke solutions and personal attention, and sound, friendly and practical advice. We are not the lowest-cost provider in the market, nor do we intend to be; our aim is to deliver well-founded, proper solutions and excellent value for money.

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