The scenarios in figures

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The scenarios can be summarised by illustrative ranges for a few key figures in 2035, which indicate the order of magnitude of the differences between the scenarios.¹

● * Population. * Adaptive hub about 145,000; fortress about 140,000; retreat about 130,000; squeeze about 125,000.

● * Employment in international companies. * Adaptive hub significantly higher than in 2025; fortress somewhat higher but more volatile; retreat lower; squeeze substantially lower.

● * Cantonal tax revenue. * Adaptive hub higher and stable; fortress higher but volatile; retreat lower; squeeze substantially lower. ● * Housing costs. * Adaptive hub higher; fortress higher; retreat stable or lower; squeeze lower.

● * Share of foreign residents. * Adaptive hub above one third; fortress about one third; retreat below 30 per cent; squeeze well below 30 per cent.

The figures show that the scenarios differ less in the canton's absolute prosperity than in its international character and its growth. Even in the squeeze, Zug would remain one of the wealthiest cantons of Switzerland. The open question for 2035 is what kind of place a prosperous Zug will be.

Notes

Author's construction; not a factual claim. Illustrative ranges for 2035 in the four scenarios (population, employment, tax revenue) constructed by the author for this book; not official projections. ↩

For general information only. This article does not constitute legal or tax advice, does not replace advice on an individual case and creates no lawyer-client relationship. It reflects the legal position as of September 2025.

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Dr Alexander Ressos, TEP

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The scenarios in figures

Notes

Setting up or expanding in Switzerland?