The Forces of Change — conclusion

Conclusion of Chapter I

The forces that will shape Zug until 2035 are already visible. The global minimum tax has ended the era in which low tax rates alone decided the location of multinational groups, while it has given the canton large additional revenues. Fiscal equalisation will determine how much of this windfall the canton can keep. Geopolitical fragmentation, sanctions and tariffs create risks and opportunities for the commodity traders and the multinational groups. The energy transition shifts the commodity trade from fossil fuels to critical minerals. Artificial intelligence and tokenisation will change finance and professional services. Life sciences and technology companies bring more substance and more pressure on space. The canton's growth, its relationship with the European Union and the legitimacy of its business model are the political questions that will decide how these forces play out. Chapter II translates them into scenarios.

For general information only. This article does not constitute legal or tax advice, does not replace advice on an individual case and creates no lawyer-client relationship. It reflects the legal position as of September 2025.

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