Scenario 2: The fortress

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In the second scenario, the world economy fragments into blocs, but Switzerland and the canton remain open to international business. As sanctions, tariffs and investment controls multiply, the great powers compete for control of critical minerals, technology and financial infrastructure. Switzerland seeks to preserve its position as a neutral platform, although in practice it aligns with the West on sanctions while maintaining trade and financial relations with other regions wherever the rules allow. In this scenario, Zug becomes a fortress of international business in a fragmented world. Its commodity traders earn high profits from volatility but face constant sanctions risks and pressure to choose sides. Some shift parts of their business to Dubai, Singapore or Hong Kong, where they can serve markets that Western sanctions exclude. The multinational groups reorganise their management into regional hubs, so that Zug may lose some functions to American and Asian centres while gaining others as a European hub. The crypto industry faces divergent regulations in different blocs and may benefit from the demand for neutral infrastructure. The canton's tax revenues remain high but become more volatile, since they depend on the profits of a few large companies in turbulent markets.

The key risks of this scenario are external. A major sanctions case could strike a large company in the canton, as the Russian sanctions struck Nord Stream. The canton could be caught between conflicting demands from the United States, the European Union and China. The reputation of the canton could suffer if its companies are associated with the evasion of sanctions or with trade in conflict minerals. The fortress scenario rewards agility and compliance while punishing companies and authorities that underestimate the political risks of international business.

For general information only. This article does not constitute legal or tax advice, does not replace advice on an individual case and creates no lawyer-client relationship. It reflects the legal position as of September 2025.

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Dr Alexander Ressos, TEP

Rechtsanwalt/Attorney-at-Law

I am a Swiss attorney-at-law and also admitted as a solicitor in Hong Kong and in England & Wales, with almost 25 years of experience.

Together with my multilingual team, including Chinese, Japanese, Korean, Russian, Ukrainian and French native speakers, I advise companies and their owners from around the world on the full range of banking, corporate, commercial and tax law matters in Switzerland, including international tax planning, fiduciary services, and legal family office services including immigration & relocation or real estate investments. My practice has a particular focus on clients from growth and frontier markets in Greater China, Central Asia and the Caucasus, the rest of Asia, the Middle East, Africa and Latin America, and I equally advise clients from Europe and North America. Through an affiliated Swiss trust company, we also take care of the incorporation and ongoing administration of their companies and other structures, including accounting, tax returns and corporate secretarial services, and I serve as a professional director where required. With the support of a network of first-class cooperation partners, I also implement solutions worldwide.

My approach is to act as a trusted advisor who works directly with decision-makers, on an equal footing: I start from what you want to achieve and shape every structure, contract and tax decision around your commercial goals and how it improves your after-tax return. As “lawyers who make it happen”, my team and I stay involved until your company is set up, your structure is in place and your transaction has closed, and we remain available for any follow-on work that may be required. You benefit from bespoke solutions and personal attention, and sound, friendly and practical advice. We are not the lowest-cost provider in the market, nor do we intend to be; our aim is to deliver well-founded, proper solutions and excellent value for money.

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Scenario 2: The fortress

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