Probabilities and judgement

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Scenario planning does not assign probabilities to scenarios, since its purpose is preparation for several futures. Readers will nonetheless form their own judgements. The author's judgement, offered with all due caution, is that the most likely outcome for 2035 is a combination of the adaptive hub and the fortress. The world economy will remain more fragmented than it was before 2020, with recurring sanctions, tariffs and conflicts. Swiss voters are likely to continue supporting an open economic model in key votes, as they have done in most votes on the relationship with the European Union and on immigration since 2000, with the notable exception of 2014.

The retreat and the squeeze are less likely, yet they remain real possibilities. Popular initiatives on immigration have come close to acceptance, one of them succeeding in 2014. While the relationship with the European Union remains contested, the housing crisis in the canton could turn local opinion against further growth. The canton's authorities and companies should therefore prepare for the less favourable scenarios while working towards the more favourable ones. A canton that assumes the adaptive hub and neglects the risks of the retreat could find itself unprepared when the political climate changes.

For general information only. This article does not constitute legal or tax advice, does not replace advice on an individual case and creates no lawyer-client relationship. It reflects the legal position as of September 2025.

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Dr Alexander Ressos, TEP

Rechtsanwalt/Attorney-at-Law

I am a Swiss attorney-at-law and also admitted as a solicitor in Hong Kong and in England & Wales, with almost 25 years of experience.

Together with my multilingual team, including Chinese, Japanese, Korean, Russian, Ukrainian and French native speakers, I advise companies and their owners from around the world on the full range of banking, corporate, commercial and tax law matters in Switzerland, including international tax planning, fiduciary services, and legal family office services including immigration & relocation or real estate investments. My practice has a particular focus on clients from growth and frontier markets in Greater China, Central Asia and the Caucasus, the rest of Asia, the Middle East, Africa and Latin America, and I equally advise clients from Europe and North America. Through an affiliated Swiss trust company, we also take care of the incorporation and ongoing administration of their companies and other structures, including accounting, tax returns and corporate secretarial services, and I serve as a professional director where required. With the support of a network of first-class cooperation partners, I also implement solutions worldwide.

My approach is to act as a trusted advisor who works directly with decision-makers, on an equal footing: I start from what you want to achieve and shape every structure, contract and tax decision around your commercial goals and how it improves your after-tax return. As “lawyers who make it happen”, my team and I stay involved until your company is set up, your structure is in place and your transaction has closed, and we remain available for any follow-on work that may be required. You benefit from bespoke solutions and personal attention, and sound, friendly and practical advice. We are not the lowest-cost provider in the market, nor do we intend to be; our aim is to deliver well-founded, proper solutions and excellent value for money.

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