Four Scenarios for 2035 — conclusion

Conclusion of Chapter II

Four scenarios describe the range of possible futures for Zug in 2035. In the adaptive hub, an open world and continued domestic support allow the canton to evolve from a tax-driven to a quality-driven location. In the fortress, a fragmented world rewards the canton's agility but exposes it to sanctions and volatility. In the retreat, domestic restrictions on immigration and business reduce the canton's attractiveness despite an open world. In the squeeze, external fragmentation and domestic restrictions combine to shrink the canton's international economy. The indicators to watch include international developments, domestic votes and the canton's own economic data. The diversity of the canton's economy is its best protection. Chapter III discusses what the canton, its companies and their advisers can do to steer towards the more favourable outcomes.

For general information only. This article does not constitute legal or tax advice, does not replace advice on an individual case and creates no lawyer-client relationship. It reflects the legal position as of September 2025.

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I am a Swiss attorney-at-law and also admitted as a solicitor in Hong Kong and in England & Wales, with almost 25 years of experience.

Together with my multilingual team, including Chinese, Japanese, Korean, Russian, Ukrainian and French native speakers, I advise companies and their owners from around the world on the full range of banking, corporate, commercial and tax law matters in Switzerland, including international tax planning, fiduciary services, and legal family office services including immigration & relocation or real estate investments. My practice has a particular focus on clients from growth and frontier markets in Greater China, Central Asia and the Caucasus, the rest of Asia, the Middle East, Africa and Latin America, and I equally advise clients from Europe and North America. Through an affiliated Swiss trust company, we also take care of the incorporation and ongoing administration of their companies and other structures, including accounting, tax returns and corporate secretarial services, and I serve as a professional director where required. With the support of a network of first-class cooperation partners, I also implement solutions worldwide.

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