A note on method and sources
The chapters of this part differ from those of the preceding parts in their method. The earlier parts described past and present developments on the basis of sources that can be checked. This part looks forward. Its scenarios, vignettes and figures are constructions of the author, based on the analysis of the preceding parts and on the published views of governments, international organisations and researchers. They should be read as structured reasoning about the future.
Readers who use this part for their own planning should update it with current information, since the forces of change described in Chapter I are moving quickly and several of the decisions listed in the milestones may have been taken by the time this book is read. The scenarios themselves are designed to remain useful even as the details change, since they rest on two broad uncertainties whose importance is unlikely to diminish: the openness of the world economy and the domestic support for an international economic model.
For general information only. This article does not constitute legal or tax advice, does not replace advice on an individual case and creates no lawyer-client relationship. It reflects the legal position as of October 2026.