Three scenarios to 2035

Common assumptions

All three scenarios share a set of assumptions that follow from the analysis above. The population of Ticino grows slowly and ages, so that the share of persons aged 65 and over approaches 29 per cent by 2035 in line with the USTAT medium scenario.¹ About half of the 43 per cent of bank employees over fifty retire by 2035. The SNB keeps interest rates between minus 0.5 and plus 1 per cent, and the franc remains strong in real terms. FINMA Circular 2026/1, the revised anti-money laundering law in force since 1 October 2026 and the new federal licences for payment instrument institutions and crypto institutions apply in all scenarios.² Artificial intelligence automates a growing part of the operational work in banks and asset managers. The capital rules for UBS are decided by Parliament in 2027 at the latest, in a form between the proposal of the Council of States committee and the decision of the Council of States. The Italian clientele remains the most important foreign market in every scenario.

The scenarios differ in their assumptions on four open drivers: market access to Italy and the European Union, which depends on the fate of the package of agreements with the Union discussed in Chapter K.I and on any bilateral arrangement with Italy; the strategic decisions of the large and foreign-owned banks in Lugano; the response of the industry to the succession problem; and the quality of the policy response of the canton and the city. The indicators chosen for 2035 are those of Table 1, completed by an index of assets managed by institutions based in Ticino, set at 100 for 2025. A neutral reference point for this index is useful. With no net inflows or outflows, an average return of 2 to 3 per cent a year in francs on a balanced portfolio would raise the index to between about 120 and 135 by 2035. Values below that range imply net outflows, values above it net inflows.

Scenario A: Niche excellence

In the first scenario Lugano consolidates its position as a specialized private banking and wealth management centre of European rank, smaller than in the past but profitable and stable. The number of banks continues to decline slowly as a few foreignowned subsidiaries close or merge, while one or two new specialized institutions arrive. The independent asset managers consolidate through internal successions and local mergers, and the number of firms falls while their average size grows. The financial centre specializes in wealth planning for Italian and international families, in succession and trust services, in the management of retirement assets of the ageing domestic population and in a regulated niche of Kryptowerte und Digital Assets and tokenised products. Market access to the European Union does not improve significantly, but the existing framework of reverse solicitation and Swiss booking remains workable.

In this scenario the number of banks reaches 30 to 34 in 2035. Bank employment falls to between 4,600 and 5,000 full-time equivalents, because automation allows the banks to replace only part of the retiring staff, while employment in the financial sector as a whole remains between 10,000 and 10,800 full-time equivalents thanks to growth in asset management, insurance and specialized services. The financial sector's share of cantonal GDP stays between 7 and 8 per cent. The number of non-bank financial enterprises falls from 874 to between 650 and 750. The asset index reaches 115 to 130, which corresponds to modest net outflows from the legacy Italian clientele, offset by new clients and market performance. The author's assessment is that this scenario is the most likely, with a probability of about one half.

Notes

1. USTAT, Scenari demografici 2024–2050 (above). The value for 2035 is the author's interpolation between the medium-scenario values of 26.8 per cent in 2030 and 31.0 per cent in 2040. ↩
2. Federal Office of Justice, media release of 12 June 2026, https://www.bj.admin.ch/en/newnsb/x3sKLxCJ6S3dQJtfvy0Tb ("The revised Anti-Money Laundering Act and the new Act on the Transparency of Legal Persons and the Identification of Beneficial Owners will enter into force on 1 October 2026"). See Chapter G.IV. ↩

For general information only. This article does not constitute legal or tax advice, does not replace advice on an individual case and creates no lawyer-client relationship. It reflects the legal position as of August 2025.