First scenario: the specialised and connected financial centre

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In the first scenario, the Geneva financial centre accepts its rank and consolidates it. It stops comparing itself with Hong Kong and Singapore on volumes and concentrates on the functions in which it remains without equal: complex international private wealth management for families from Europe, Africa, the Middle East and Latin America who seek stability, expertise and legitimate discretion. Next come commodity trading and its financing, kept in Geneva by competitive taxation, credible compliance and the cluster described in Part G, then arbitration, advisory services and training, carried by International Geneva and the French language, and finally sustainable and impact finance, at the meeting point of finance and the international organisations. The centre buys its technological infrastructure from Zurich, Luxembourg and the United States, adopts tokenisation when its clients ask for it and governs artificial intelligence in line with FINMA’s expectations.

In this scenario, the 2026 package with the Union is accepted, free movement is maintained with the safeguard clause, the European subsidiaries of the Geneva houses serve the Union’s clientele and the Berne agreement with the United Kingdom is used to the full. The large bank keeps its Geneva presence after a parliamentary compromise on capital requirements. The number of banks continues to decline slowly, while the independent asset managers consolidate under the regime of the Financial Institutions Act. Employment in the financial centre stabilises around its current level, with a shift towards advisory services, compliance and high-value-added functions. In 2035, Geneva is a medium-sized, specialised, profitable and respected financial centre, managing more wealth than in 2026 while carrying less weight in the global total. This scenario is the most probable and, in the author’s view, the most desirable. It presupposes decisions which the final section sets out.

For general information only. This article does not constitute legal or tax advice, does not replace advice on an individual case and creates no lawyer-client relationship. It reflects the legal position as of September 2025.

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Dr Alexander Ressos, TEP

Rechtsanwalt/Attorney-at-Law

I am a Swiss attorney-at-law and also admitted as a solicitor in Hong Kong and in England & Wales, with almost 25 years of experience.

Together with my multilingual team, including Chinese, Japanese, Korean, Russian, Ukrainian and French native speakers, I advise companies and their owners from around the world on the full range of banking, corporate, commercial and tax law matters in Switzerland, including international tax planning, fiduciary services, and legal family office services including immigration & relocation or real estate investments. My practice has a particular focus on clients from growth and frontier markets in Greater China, Central Asia and the Caucasus, the rest of Asia, the Middle East, Africa and Latin America, and I equally advise clients from Europe and North America. Through an affiliated Swiss trust company, we also take care of the incorporation and ongoing administration of their companies and other structures, including accounting, tax returns and corporate secretarial services, and I serve as a professional director where required. With the support of a network of first-class cooperation partners, I also implement solutions worldwide.

My approach is to act as a trusted advisor who works directly with decision-makers, on an equal footing: I start from what you want to achieve and shape every structure, contract and tax decision around your commercial goals and how it improves your after-tax return. As “lawyers who make it happen”, my team and I stay involved until your company is set up, your structure is in place and your transaction has closed, and we remain available for any follow-on work that may be required. You benefit from bespoke solutions and personal attention, and sound, friendly and practical advice. We are not the lowest-cost provider in the market, nor do we intend to be; our aim is to deliver well-founded, proper solutions and excellent value for money.

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First scenario: the specialised and connected financial centre

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