The Future of the Swiss Banking Model — conclusion

Conclusion

The Swiss banking model of 2035 will be shaped by decisions and developments that are still open in autumn 2026. The capital regime for UBS and the bank's response, the strength of the franc, the access of Swiss banks to the European market, the growth of Asian and Gulf booking centres, tokenisation and artificial intelligence, the great wealth transfer and the future of sustainable finance will determine which of the four scenarios outlined in this chapter comes closest to reality. Fortress Switzerland, the departure of UBS, the Asian pivot and digital reinvention are analytical constructs, which are useful because they force institutions, clients and advisers to examine their assumptions. For Basel, the scenarios show that the cantonal banks, the private banks, the BIS and the cross-border client base respond differently to each future, and that the city's distinctive assets lie in its expertise on banking regulation and its proximity to the neighbouring countries.

Several of these drivers lead back to one question that has accompanied Swiss banking since the 1990s: the relationship between Switzerland and the European Union. Market access for Swiss banks, the regulation of cross-border services and the integration of the Basel region into the European economy all depend on how that relationship develops. The next chapter therefore turns to Switzerland and the European Union, to the package of agreements concluded politically in December 2024 and to the scenarios for that relationship in 2035.

For general information only. This article does not constitute legal or tax advice, does not replace advice on an individual case and creates no lawyer-client relationship. It reflects the legal position as of August 2025.

English

Contact

Dr Alexander Ressos, TEP

Rechtsanwalt/Attorney-at-Law

I am a Swiss attorney-at-law and also admitted as a solicitor in Hong Kong and in England & Wales, with almost 25 years of experience.

Together with my multilingual team, including Chinese, Japanese, Korean, Russian, Ukrainian and French native speakers, I advise companies and their owners from around the world on the full range of banking, corporate, commercial and tax law matters in Switzerland, including international tax planning, fiduciary services, and legal family office services including immigration & relocation or real estate investments. My practice has a particular focus on clients from growth and frontier markets in Greater China, Central Asia and the Caucasus, the rest of Asia, the Middle East, Africa and Latin America, and I equally advise clients from Europe and North America. Through an affiliated Swiss trust company, we also take care of the incorporation and ongoing administration of their companies and other structures, including accounting, tax returns and corporate secretarial services, and I serve as a professional director where required. With the support of a network of first-class cooperation partners, I also implement solutions worldwide.

My approach is to act as a trusted advisor who works directly with decision-makers, on an equal footing: I start from what you want to achieve and shape every structure, contract and tax decision around your commercial goals and how it improves your after-tax return. As “lawyers who make it happen”, my team and I stay involved until your company is set up, your structure is in place and your transaction has closed, and we remain available for any follow-on work that may be required. You benefit from bespoke solutions and personal attention, and sound, friendly and practical advice. We are not the lowest-cost provider in the market, nor do we intend to be; our aim is to deliver well-founded, proper solutions and excellent value for money.

Get in touch →

The Future of the Swiss Banking Model — conclusion

Conclusion

Setting up or expanding in Switzerland?