Signposts to watch

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Several signposts will show which of these scenarios is becoming more likely. On the regulatory side, observers should watch the Federal Council's consultation draft on the implementation of the Council of Europe convention, the development of FINMA's expectations and the final timetable of the EU AI Act for high-risk systems.¹ On the market side, the concentration of providers, the prices of computing power and the performance of open models such as Apertus will indicate whether the third scenario is gaining ground. Statistics on productivity and employment in financial services will show whether the first scenario is materialising.

Within Basel, the publications and projects of the BIS and the Basel Committee are the most direct indicators of the city's role. A standard or set of principles on AI from the Basel Committee would strengthen the first scenario, while projects of the Innovation Hub on supervisory technology would point towards the second. The frequency and scale of AI-related fraud reported by the Federal Office for Cyber Security and by banks will indicate the risk of the fourth scenario. None of these indicators will decide the matter alone, which is why scenario planning recommends watching them together and revisiting assumptions regularly.²

Notes

Status of the Swiss consultation draft and of the EU digital omnibus to be verified as of autumn 2026. ↩
On the use of signposts and early indicators in scenario planning, see Schwartz, The Art of the Long View, 1991, and the literature on strategic foresight. To be verified. ↩

For general information only. This article does not constitute legal or tax advice, does not replace advice on an individual case and creates no lawyer-client relationship. It reflects the legal position as of August 2025.

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Dr Alexander Ressos, TEP

Rechtsanwalt/Attorney-at-Law

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Signposts to watch

Notes

Setting up or expanding in Switzerland?