Signposts to watch

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The four scenarios are not mutually exclusive. Elements of several of them may combine, so that UBS remains in Switzerland while booking centres shift to Asia and banks digitalise their services. The value of the scenarios lies in identifying the signposts that indicate which forces dominate. The most important of them can be summarised in a list.

1.The final decision of Parliament and, if a referendum is held, of the electorate on the capital requirements for systemically important banks, and the reaction of UBS to it.

2.Any formal step by UBS towards a change of its group structure or headquarters, such as the creation of a foreign holding company or applications to foreign supervisors.

3.The relative shares of Switzerland, Hong Kong, Singapore and the Gulf in cross-border booked wealth, as reported in the annual wealth reports.

4.The number of banks and licensed asset managers in Switzerland and the pace of consolidation among private banks.

5.The policy rate of the SNB and the exchange rate of the franc against the euro and the dollar.

6.The ratification of the package of agreements with the European Union and any steps towards an agreement on financial services or improved market access.

7.The volume of tokenised assets in Swiss banks, the progress of settlement in tokenised central bank money and the adoption of artificial intelligence in compliance and advice.

8.The direction of sustainable finance regulation in the European Union, the United States and Switzerland.

9.The sanctions policy of Switzerland and its relationship with the United States, the European Union and China.

Most of these signposts can be followed in public sources: parliamentary records, the publications of FINMA and the SNB, the annual reports of banks and the industry studies cited in this chapter.¹ An observer who reviews them each year will be able to see which of the scenarios is gaining ground and adjust strategies accordingly.

Notes

On sources for monitoring the Swiss banking sector, see the SNB's annual banking statistics Banks in Switzerland, FINMA's annual reports and risk monitor, the Banking Barometer of the Swiss Bankers Association and the annual wealth reports of BCG and other consultancies. To be verified. ↩

For general information only. This article does not constitute legal or tax advice, does not replace advice on an individual case and creates no lawyer-client relationship. It reflects the legal position as of August 2025.

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Dr Alexander Ressos, TEP

Rechtsanwalt/Attorney-at-Law

I am a Swiss attorney-at-law and also admitted as a solicitor in Hong Kong and in England & Wales, with almost 25 years of experience.

Together with my multilingual team, including Chinese, Japanese, Korean, Russian, Ukrainian and French native speakers, I advise companies and their owners from around the world on the full range of banking, corporate, commercial and tax law matters in Switzerland, including international tax planning, fiduciary services, and legal family office services including immigration & relocation or real estate investments. My practice has a particular focus on clients from growth and frontier markets in Greater China, Central Asia and the Caucasus, the rest of Asia, the Middle East, Africa and Latin America, and I equally advise clients from Europe and North America. Through an affiliated Swiss trust company, we also take care of the incorporation and ongoing administration of their companies and other structures, including accounting, tax returns and corporate secretarial services, and I serve as a professional director where required. With the support of a network of first-class cooperation partners, I also implement solutions worldwide.

My approach is to act as a trusted advisor who works directly with decision-makers, on an equal footing: I start from what you want to achieve and shape every structure, contract and tax decision around your commercial goals and how it improves your after-tax return. As “lawyers who make it happen”, my team and I stay involved until your company is set up, your structure is in place and your transaction has closed, and we remain available for any follow-on work that may be required. You benefit from bespoke solutions and personal attention, and sound, friendly and practical advice. We are not the lowest-cost provider in the market, nor do we intend to be; our aim is to deliver well-founded, proper solutions and excellent value for money.

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Signposts to watch

Notes

Setting up or expanding in Switzerland?