Signposts to watch

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The four scenarios can be monitored through a common set of indicators. The first group concerns trade: the American tariff regime for pharmaceuticals under Section 232, the general tariff on Swiss goods and the fate of the binding trade agreement between Switzerland and the United States, and the progress of Swiss and EFTA agreements with other partners. The second group concerns pricing: the implementation of most-favoured-nation pricing in American law and practice, the duration of company agreements, and the development of Swiss medicine prices and cost-containment legislation. The third group concerns tax: the stability of the Pillar Two regime and of the side-by-side arrangement for American groups, the profit tax revenue of Basel-Stadt, and any changes to the location package.¹

The fourth group concerns geopolitics: the implementation of the BIOSECURE Act, any extension of outbound investment review to biotechnology, Chinese export controls, the treatment of Syngenta and the adoption of Swiss investment screening legislation. The fifth group concerns the real economy of Basel: research and manufacturing employment of the large groups in the region, the number of new biotech companies and the volume of their financing, the location of new manufacturing investment, and the composition of executive committees and boards. None of these indicators is decisive on its own. Taken together, they allow an observer to judge which of the scenarios is unfolding, which is the purpose that Wack assigned to scenarios at Shell: to change the mental models of decision-makers before events force them to.²

Notes

On the annual financial reports of the Canton of Basel-Stadt and the development of profit tax revenue, see the reports of the Finance Department of Basel-Stadt. Figures to be verified. ↩
Pierre Wack, "Scenarios: Shooting the Rapids", Harvard Business Review 63 (November–December 1985), on scenarios as a means of changing managers' mental models. To be verified. ↩

For general information only. This article does not constitute legal or tax advice, does not replace advice on an individual case and creates no lawyer-client relationship. It reflects the legal position as of August 2025.

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Dr Alexander Ressos, TEP

Rechtsanwalt/Attorney-at-Law

I am a Swiss attorney-at-law and also admitted as a solicitor in Hong Kong and in England & Wales, with almost 25 years of experience.

Together with my multilingual team, including Chinese, Japanese, Korean, Russian, Ukrainian and French native speakers, I advise companies and their owners from around the world on the full range of banking, corporate, commercial and tax law matters in Switzerland, including international tax planning, fiduciary services, and legal family office services including immigration & relocation or real estate investments. My practice has a particular focus on clients from growth and frontier markets in Greater China, Central Asia and the Caucasus, the rest of Asia, the Middle East, Africa and Latin America, and I equally advise clients from Europe and North America. Through an affiliated Swiss trust company, we also take care of the incorporation and ongoing administration of their companies and other structures, including accounting, tax returns and corporate secretarial services, and I serve as a professional director where required. With the support of a network of first-class cooperation partners, I also implement solutions worldwide.

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Signposts to watch

Notes

Setting up or expanding in Switzerland?