Scenario 3: AI concentration

Read the PDF edition (2 pages)

In the third scenario, the market for artificial intelligence becomes highly concentrated. By 2035, a handful of providers in the United States and China supply the models on which banks, insurers and pharmaceutical groups depend, together with the cloud infrastructure on which they run. Swiss institutions have little bargaining power, while their data flow to providers subject to foreign law. Geopolitical tensions lead to restrictions on access to models or chips. Supervisors worry about the resilience of a financial system whose critical functions depend on a few foreign firms.¹

Switzerland has tried to anticipate this scenario. The Swiss AI Initiative, launched by ETH Zurich and EPFL in December 2023 with the support of the Swiss National Supercomputing Centre in Lugano, aims to develop open models trained on Swiss infrastructure. In September 2025, the initiative published Apertus, a large language model released with open weights, open training data documentation and support for many languages, including Swiss German and Romansh.² Whether such models can keep pace with the leading commercial systems is uncertain. They do offer an option for applications in which sovereignty, transparency and compliance with Swiss law are decisive. The banks and insurers of Basel could become early users of such models. Indicators of this scenario would be rising market shares of the leading providers, export restrictions on models or chips, supervisory statements on concentration risk and public investment in sovereign infrastructure.

Notes

Scenario constructed by the author. On concentration risks from third-party providers, see Financial Stability Board, Enhancing Third-Party Risk Management and Oversight: A Toolkit for Financial Institutions and Financial Authorities, December 2023. To be verified. ↩
ETH Zurich, EPFL and CSCS, announcement of the Swiss AI Initiative (December 2023) and release of the Apertus model (September 2025); on the "Alps" supercomputer at CSCS in Lugano. Status to be verified. ↩

For general information only. This article does not constitute legal or tax advice, does not replace advice on an individual case and creates no lawyer-client relationship. It reflects the legal position as of August 2025.

English

Contact

Dr Alexander Ressos, TEP

Rechtsanwalt/Attorney-at-Law

I am a Swiss attorney-at-law and also admitted as a solicitor in Hong Kong and in England & Wales, with almost 25 years of experience.

Together with my multilingual team, including Chinese, Japanese, Korean, Russian, Ukrainian and French native speakers, I advise companies and their owners from around the world on the full range of banking, corporate, commercial and tax law matters in Switzerland, including international tax planning, fiduciary services, and legal family office services including immigration & relocation or real estate investments. My practice has a particular focus on clients from growth and frontier markets in Greater China, Central Asia and the Caucasus, the rest of Asia, the Middle East, Africa and Latin America, and I equally advise clients from Europe and North America. Through an affiliated Swiss trust company, we also take care of the incorporation and ongoing administration of their companies and other structures, including accounting, tax returns and corporate secretarial services, and I serve as a professional director where required. With the support of a network of first-class cooperation partners, I also implement solutions worldwide.

My approach is to act as a trusted advisor who works directly with decision-makers, on an equal footing: I start from what you want to achieve and shape every structure, contract and tax decision around your commercial goals and how it improves your after-tax return. As “lawyers who make it happen”, my team and I stay involved until your company is set up, your structure is in place and your transaction has closed, and we remain available for any follow-on work that may be required. You benefit from bespoke solutions and personal attention, and sound, friendly and practical advice. We are not the lowest-cost provider in the market, nor do we intend to be; our aim is to deliver well-founded, proper solutions and excellent value for money.

Get in touch →

Scenario 3: AI concentration

Notes

Setting up or expanding in Switzerland?