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Scenario 1: The augmented centre

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In the first scenario, artificial intelligence raises the productivity of Basel's financial institutions steadily without disrupting them. Relationship managers, analysts, compliance officers and lawyers use models as everyday tools that prepare their work and check its quality, while decisions and client relationships remain in human hands. Costs fall, service improves and the institutions of Basel take a leading role in the governance of the technology. The BIS and the Basel Committee develop standards for the use of AI by banks and central banks, which become as closely associated with the city as the Basel Accords.1

In this scenario, Switzerland's principles-based regulation proves an advantage. FINMA's expectations evolve through guidance and supervisory practice, allowing institutions to adopt new tools quickly while maintaining sound governance. Swiss banks market their combination of technology and discretion to international clients. The language technology described above allows them to serve clients in many languages with small teams. The labour market adjusts gradually, because the gains in productivity are spread over a decade and the demand for qualified staff remains high. Indicators of this scenario would be rising productivity statistics in financial services, stable employment with changing skill profiles and an active role of Basel's institutions in international standard setting.

Notes

  1. Scenario constructed by the author. On the role of the Basel Committee in setting standards, see Part F, Chapter II. ↩

For general information only. This article does not constitute legal or tax advice, does not replace advice on an individual case and creates no lawyer-client relationship. It reflects the legal position as of August 2025.

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