Implications for advisers and clients

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For clients, the four scenarios lead to a common practical conclusion. Crypto-assets and digital assets will be part of the wealth of many families in 2035, whether as a major asset class or as a niche holding. They must be integrated into the instruments of wealth planning that Part E, Chapter V described: trusts, foundations, wills and marriage contracts. The trustee of a family trust who holds tokens must be able to control the private keys, while the executor of an estate must be able to identify and access the deceased's wallets. The documentation of the origin of digital assets, which Part E, Chapter III described as the principal obstacle to bringing them into a bank, will remain essential, because each scenario assumes stricter rules on identification and tax reporting.¹

For advisers, the scenarios demand a combination of competences that has rarely been found in a single person or firm. The structuring of a tokenisation project requires knowledge of securities law, financial market regulation, insolvency law and private international law. Advising a family with digital assets requires knowledge of trust and succession law, tax, anti-money laundering and the technology of custody. In the scenario of fragmented rails, knowledge of sanctions and export control will be indispensable. Basel's advisers, who traditionally combined private banking, trust and tax expertise with cross-border experience in the triangle of Switzerland, Germany and France, are well placed to develop this combination. The author's own practice combines these fields and confirms the demand for such integration. The firms that succeed will be those that understand both the law and the technology and can translate between them for their clients.

For the institutions of Basel, the scenarios point to a choice. The Basler Kantonalbank and the private banks can treat tokenisation as a niche, or they can invest in the capabilities that would allow them to prosper in the unified ledger or stablecoin scenarios. The University of Basel and the FHNW can strengthen their research in digital finance and its legal foundations. The city and the canton can position Basel as the place where the rules of digital money are made, building on the presence of the BIS and its Innovation Hub. None of these choices requires certainty about which scenario will prevail. Each is robust across several scenarios, which is the test that scenario planning applies to strategic decisions.²

Notes

1. On crypto-assets and digital assets in succession planning, see Part E, Chapter V. On the documentation of the origin of crypto-assets for banking purposes, see Part E, Chapter III. ↩
2. On the concept of robust strategies that perform acceptably across several scenarios, see Schwartz, The Art of the Long View (1991), and van der Heijden, Scenarios (2005). To be verified. ↩

For general information only. This article does not constitute legal or tax advice, does not replace advice on an individual case and creates no lawyer-client relationship. It reflects the legal position as of August 2025.